It was 60 days ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
That’s a rather hard proposition to address. History, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look curiously susceptible – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
