Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
