Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
